CHARTS POST 8

TKG WEEKLY CHART

TKG is not a share that I normally look at but the current chart is looking very interesting. The price action has been moving through a large megaphone formation and is currently testing the support level. Fridays close of trade saw the share come to test the weekly 200MA level. A break above this level will be a highly bullish signal for the share. Looking at the indicators we can see a bullish buy zone grouping on the stochastics as well as a bullish cross of the RSI and its moving average. A close above the 200MA will confirm the two targets shown on the graph, these being 1) 68.18 and 2) 75.60 - also the 61.8% extension level. The bullish sentiment will remain as long as the megaphone formation support level holds.

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REI WEEKLY CHART

The resent news on nicotine regulations saw the share prince of REI have a pull back to test the all important weekly 200MA level. Looking at the price action now we can see that the 200MA level has held. Looking at the indicators currently they are not yet grouped in the buy zone but are moving strongly towards it. The current standing is looking good for a long position. There are two targets which can be seen on the chart, these being: Target 1: R31.62 and Target 2 R34.21. The target levels will remain as long as the share price action does not break the long term support level. Important to note that this level has been in play since 2012 so it is a very significant support level.

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$ GOLD 

This chart was posted quite a while ago and we will now have a look at the updated price action has done since. Looking at the chart the gold price has not had much significant movement, the price action is now testing the 200MA for the third time. Taking global news into account the situation with the US and North Korea could drive gold as investors flock to a save haven in gold. Technically we need to see a weekly close above the 200MA level as a confirmation for more bullish movement to come. A close above the 200MA will target the two levels depicted in the chart. 

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USD ZAR 

This is a chart that I posted a while ago on the USD/ZAR. After the news on the no confidence vote the ZAR was obviously going to see some weakness international currencies. Looking at the chart the first target set has been reached. When looking at the current situation it is evident that the price action is above the all important 200MA level after Fridays close. Going forward what can we expect when looking at the chart? We are currently at a very significant point in the USD/ZAR history with the price action testing the long term resistance level. A break of this trend line will be set the tone for more ZAR weakness to come. Using the Fibonacci extension levels the next target up is 13.75. This is highly. The target will remain in play as long as the price action remains above the 200MA level. 

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CLS WEEKLY TIME TO SELL?..

CLS has really had an amazing run since April 2016 but now the chart is very overbought. Looking at the chart there are several bearish signals in play. 

1)  The weekly stochastics are heavily grouped in the sell zone. 

2) When looking at the RSI it is evident that there is a sell divergence in play as the RSI tops are refusing to confirm the new share price high. 

3) The actual price action has formed a classic rising wedge formation which is a bearish formation.

4) The price action has also been moving through an Elliot Wave pattern which is depicted by the numbers on the chart. 

All in all this does look like the time to take profits. The vote of no confidence result will also put a strain on the companies importing costs as the ZAR has already weakened considerably. 

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CLS WEEKLY CHART WARNING

CLS has really had an amazing run since April 2016 but now the chart is starting to look very overbought. Looking at the price formation we can see that the weekly candle sticks have been forming a potential rising wedge formation. Adding to this bearish sentiment is the falling RSI tops which are not confirming the new share price high levels. If you are long in this stock keep this in mind a break for the falling wedge support level would be very nasty.

PPC WEEKLY CHART UPDATE

Since the last chart we have seen the price action come to test the weekly 200MA level and bounce off it as a support. When looking at the bigger picture everything is still intact and this one is still looking great. Currently the price action is once again sitting against the resistance level. As with the previous update watch for the confirmed resistance break!! It is also very important to keep in mind the very large gap level still open, which is depicted in the chart

SDASDASD

KIO WEEKLY CHART 

Since February 2016 KIO has gone from one of the worst performers on the JSE to one of the best. The price action has been moving though a relatively narrow ascending channel. However, the picture has taken a turn for multiple reasons. As we can see the ascending channel formation has been broken which is the first bearish sign. The second sing is the break below the all important weekly 200MA. The third bearish sign on the price action is the failure to break above the larger descending resistance level. 

The first target down is shown on the graph at R 112.36. Will only go long again if the price action can break back above the 200MA level. 

CHARTS POST 7

REM WEEKLY PICTURE 

REM is not a share that I have posted about much in the past but the weekly chart is definitely now worth noting. Looking at the chart we can see that the share price movement has now tested a double support level and held. Adding to this we can also see that the price movement has created a double bottom level at R205. Taking the indicators into account we can see that the RSI bottoms are refusing to confirm the lower lows. The current picture is looking like a test of the 200MA is on the cards. 

This level also coincides with the 161.8% extension level with the target at R245.69. The stop on this one is however quite large with the trade only going out of play with a confirmed weekly break of the ascending trend line support. 

BAT WEEKLY PICTURE

BAT is starting to look extremely good we have seen the bounce off the support level and now we are coming ever closer to the all important weekly 200MA level. The indicators are showing that there is still a lot of potential bullish movement on the cards as the RSI is still far off its highs. A break above the 200MA will be the confirmation of this bullish move. The target levels can be seen on the graph. BAT is also a company that I really like with good management and diversified assets. 

Trajectory Algorithm Forecast

I have decided to run the trajectory forecasting model in conjunction with the technical analysis chart when possible for the JSETOP40 or ALL SHARE analysis posts. As detailed in the earlier post on the TOP40 there is a very clear and very large inverse head and shoulders formation brewing (All so on the ALL SHARE). What is apparent is that both are pointing to a similar outlook. In the past when the chart and model align it is a good sign of potential movement to come. Will be interesting to watch this play out.

The Technical Analysis targets can be seen in the graph with the 1st target being the 61.8% extension level at R 48 330 and the second target being the 100% extension level of R49 901

Description of contents

The red line is the actual historical price action for the Top40. The grey line is the trajectory forecasting algorithm's path following the price movement. As the algorithm follows the price numbers it is applying machine learning to analyse the trend and seasonality in the numbers. At the point at which the model is run the algorithm then forecasts 30 periods (in this case days) into the future which is depicted after the actual price action stops.  

Trajectory Algo 

Top 40 Technical Analysis 

JSE NPK WEEKLY UPDATE

JSE NPK still a very good looking chart with the share trading 61% off its all time high! Since the last post the formations target is still waiting to be confirmed as we have still not yet been given a confirmed close outside of the falling wedge formation, the last weekly candle briefly moved outside of the resistance but still closed within the formation. Looking at the indicators the buy confirmation is still in play on the RSI with the increasing RSI bottoms. The stochastics are showing a bullish picture too with a bullish cross on the slow stochastics and a bullish cross between the fast and slow stochastic lines. Still definitely a chart to watch closely, this one could have a very nice run if we can get that confirmed break. The targets are as seen in the graph.

$GOLD DAILY CHART

This post is simply serving as an update on the current dollar gold chart. Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the bullish sentiment is still strongly in play. The price action is still above the all important 200MA level. The bullish targets and their levels are shown on the chart. The targets will remain as long as we dont see a weekly close below the 200MA level. Looking at the indicators the chart is slightly overbought but there is no sell zone grouping just yet. 

TOP40 MASSIVE INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS 

Looking at some of the global indices it is very clear that we have not seen as much bullish movement when compared to something like the SNP500, but what is currently brewing on the Top40 could be a very large bullish move. Price action has been in the process of forming a very large Inverse Head and Shoulders formation since July 2016. The formation has now been completed and price action is above the neckline. The first target up is the 61.8% extension level with far more movement to come if the price action can remain above the neckline level. It is however important to note that the chart is showing to be overbought. Remaining above 47 315 will keep the bullish sentiment in play.

HAR BACK AT IT AGAIN 

The chart shown is the daily chart for Harmony, once again it is starting to look bullish. Looking at the price action we can see that it has pulled back to the established support level. On the RSI bottoms we can see that they are increasing shown a buy confirmation. Looking at the stochastics they are not yet grouped in the buy zone but are approaching it. For the leg up there is a very large open gap shown on the graph which will be the initial target. The next target up is the 61.8% extension level at R35.52

JSE BANKS (J835) WARNING!

Having a look at the JSE banking sector I am still not yet convinced that this sector is out of the firing line. The rising wedge that has been in formation since July 2015 broke to the downside after the recent "Cabinet reshuffle". Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the price action is now above the all important 200MA once again. In technical analysis it is not uncommon for a falling wedge to break to the downside and price action to come back to test the support as a resistance and then continue its movement to complete its target. Looking at the RSI we can see that there is a sell divergence on the RSI tops which is not bullish. All in all I will not be going long on any of the banks at the moment and will wait to see if the index will hold above the 200MA. 

CHARTS POST 6

JSE PPC WEEKLY LOOK

PPC weekly is an interesting looking chart at the moment. Looking the price action the share price has been moving through a descending channel formation. Over the last number of weeks the price action has been forming a flattening base within the descending channel. Looking at the RSI bottoms we can see that they are increasing which is bullish for the share. The descending channel resistance is now once again being tested with the current price above the 200MA. A break of the resistance level will be highly significant for the stock going forward and will confirm bullish movement to come. It is also important to note the very large gap open at R13.70 which will be the longer term target if the resistance level can be broken. This is definitely another stock to watch and hold in a portfolio. 

JSE NPK CHART TO WATCH

NPK is not really a share that I have looked at in the past but the picture is now starting to look very interesting. The share is trading well off its all time high of R49.06. Since July 2015 the weekly price action has been in the process of forming a bullish falling wedge formation. The weekly price action is now re-testing the falling wedge formation's resistance. What is also important to note with this is the very strong buy divergence on the RSI bottoms. This divergence can also be seen on the stochastics. I very much like this picture the long entry will be triggered with a break of the resistance level. The initial targets are shown on the graph but it is very likely that with a confirmed break we could even see a test of R27. This is definitely a chart to watch

$ GOLD WEEKLY 

I have been bullish on gold for a number of months now and am now looking at the chart to check in to see if the picture has changed since it was last looked at. Looking at the longer term weekly chart the picture is still looking very good. Looking at the weekly price action we can see that a break above the weekly 200MA is confirmed. This is highly bullish as this signifies a long term change in trend. The price action since February 2016 has seen the gold price test the top of the falling wedge formation twice with both times holding as a support. 

Using a Fibonacci extension from the last price movement there targets levels are 1 282 which has been reached 1 338 and 1 418. The bullish sentiment will remain as long as the 200ma level holds 

NPN PROFIT TAKING

After the somewhat slow meandering through the horizontal channel the price action broke through the top of the horizontal channel and both targets were reached. Looking at the chart now there is a strong overhead resistance at R2 423. Looking at the daily chart we can see the stochastics grouped in the sell zone. To add to this the RSI is at a high level of 70 with a bearish cross with its moving average. All in all the daily chart is looking overbought and due for a pull back. I have sold my position to take a profit of 12.40%. I am still bullish for the share long term but will sit back and wait for the next entry. 

SOL DAILY PROFIT TAKING

The recent political events have seriously pushed the rand hedge shares up. SOL is no exception to this moving significantly in a matter of a few days. Looking at the daily chart it is now time to take profit on this trade. Although I like the share for the long term the daily picture is looking very overbought. The RSI is currently at 70.71 with a bearish intersection with its moving average. Looking at the stochastic it is showing a similar picture with both stochastics in the sell zone. Profit was taken at the intersection of price action with the second target level. Profit on this trade was 15.15%

JSE INP WEEKLY CHART

INP was one of the shares that was identified to have very bearish looking weekly chart at the start of this year (first post on the 9th of Jan). Since the first post the share has tested the critical resistance declining trend line and failed to break though. This means that the very large weekly Head and Shoulders formation in still in play. The news of Zuma firing 15 ministers one of which our finance minister had a significant effect on our financial sector, taking a massive blow of R85 billion rand. Going forward it seems that the situations negative effect will not be as brief as with the Nene firing with ratings agencies already talking about the SA downgrade. Looking at the chart of INP one of SA's financial stocks it is confirming this sentiment with a strong sell zone grouping on the stochastics and a bearish cross on the RSI. 

There is a gap level open at the 100% Fibonacci extension level with a close of R80.78 which is the first target down before the full Head and Shoulders target level. The target will remain as long as there is no weekly close that breaks the descending resistance level.